Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.942534 1.104353 1.285506 1.503352 1.758290 2.047298 2.399985
2024-10-27 0.656453 0.860913 1.116601 1.459981 1.909517 2.478718 3.255508
2024-11-03 0.526704 0.748320 1.048130 1.483679 2.101248 2.947263 4.197670
2024-11-10 0.465407 0.705641 1.052060 1.588517 2.400173 3.585600 5.455260
2024-11-17 0.406933 0.652546 1.026753 1.639088 2.618932 4.131345 6.654508
2024-11-24 0.353058 0.595149 0.982529 1.648377 2.768471 4.584807 7.770904
2024-12-01 0.306150 0.540056 0.931404 1.634868 2.873330 4.973875 8.830865
2024-12-08 0.269034 0.494937 0.888800 1.626724 2.981730 5.377506 9.966894
2024-12-15 0.241802 0.462656 0.862847 1.642261 3.130986 5.867649 11.322210
2024-12-22 0.209180 0.415268 0.802461 1.584525 3.134662 6.090348 12.205382
2024-12-29 0.201492 0.414347 0.828320 1.694095 3.472006 6.982640 14.509802
2025-01-05 0.177480 0.377323 0.778899 1.646861 3.489971 7.251760 15.594684
2025-01-12 0.155638 0.342215 0.729723 1.595646 3.497802 7.512258 16.725494
2025-01-19 0.136787 0.310835 0.684194 1.546151 3.503465 7.771977 17.902312
2025-01-26 0.126481 0.296707 0.673446 1.571058 3.675773 8.413526 20.028224
2025-02-02 0.123586 0.298996 0.699133 1.682086 4.059731 9.578944 23.542206
2025-02-09 0.116781 0.291039 0.700289 1.735648 4.316188 10.486315 26.577066
2025-02-16 0.107890 0.276682 0.684376 1.745487 4.467724 11.165173 29.150015
2025-02-23 0.098595 0.259918 0.660262 1.731178 4.556258 11.700968 31.437157
2025-03-02 0.090600 0.245331 0.639552 1.722553 4.658039 12.283673 33.936031
2025-03-09 0.084635 0.235250 0.628954 1.739009 4.828492 13.066882 37.096068
2025-03-16 0.075752 0.215952 0.591637 1.677857 4.779407 13.262029 38.655636
2025-03-23 0.075174 0.219751 0.616824 1.793909 5.241471 14.910520 44.613820